Krupa na Vrbasu 0–3 Zrinjski: Result & Stats

Krupa na Vrbasu

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Zrinjski

9/28/2020

Premijer Liga · Round 9Gradski stadion Krupa na Vrbasu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Krupa na Vrbasu27%

×Draw28%

Zrinjski45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Krupa na VrbasuExpected goals in this matchZrinjski

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.92

1.29

Krupa na Vrbasu

0.92

Zrinjski

1.29

Zrinjski creates 40% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 109 away

1.13

creates per match

1.45

1.13

allows per match

0.71

creates per match

Krupa na Vrbasu

1.13

Zrinjski

1.45

allows per match

Krupa na Vrbasu

1.13

Zrinjski

0.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Krupa na Vrbasu+0.00on par

Zrinjski+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Krupa na Vrbasu ↓

Zrinjski →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–114%

0–29%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Krupa na Vrbasu or draw

55%

Krupa na Vrbasu or Zrinjski

72%

Draw or Zrinjski

73%

Winning margin

Krupa na Vrbasu wins by 2+

9%

Zrinjski wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Krupa na Vrbasu 1+ goals

60%

Krupa na Vrbasu 2+ goals

23%

Krupa na Vrbasu 3+ goals

7%

Zrinjski 1+ goals

72%

Zrinjski 2+ goals

37%

Zrinjski 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Krupa na Vrbasu (draw refunded)

37%

Zrinjski (draw refunded)

63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Krupa na Vrbasu at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.13 · 16 matches

Zrinjski away — creates 1.45, concedes 0.71 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Krupa na Vrbasu attack 1.13 + Zrinjski defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.92

Zrinjski attack 1.45 + Krupa na Vrbasu defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Krupa na Vrbasu scores more

27%

level

28%

Zrinjski scores more

45%

Zrinjski at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Zrinjski will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff