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Zrinjski vs Igman Konjic — Premijer Liga 2019

Zrinjski
Zrinjski
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Igman Konjic
Igman Konjic
5/25/2025Premijer LigaPremijer Liga · Round 32Stadion Bijeli Brijeg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Zrinjski68%
×Draw18%
Igman Konjic14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zrinjski
2.29
Igman Konjic
0.91

Zrinjski creates 152% more chances

Season form · 114 home / 51 away

creates per match

Zrinjski
2.26
Igman Konjic
1.20

allows per match

Zrinjski
0.61
Igman Konjic
2.31

finishing

Zrinjski+0.00on par
Igman Konjic+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zrinjski ↓

Igman Konjic →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Zrinjski or draw
86%
Zrinjski or Igman Konjic
82%
Draw or Igman Konjic
32%

Winning margin

Zrinjski wins by 2+
45%
Igman Konjic wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Zrinjski 1+ goals
90%
Zrinjski 2+ goals
66%
Zrinjski 3+ goals
40%
Igman Konjic 1+ goals
60%
Igman Konjic 2+ goals
23%
Igman Konjic 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Zrinjski (draw refunded)
83%
Igman Konjic (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zrinjski at home — creates 2.26, concedes 0.61 · 114 matches

Igman Konjic away — creates 1.20, concedes 2.31 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zrinjski attack 2.26 + Igman Konjic defence 2.31 → ÷2 → 2.29

Igman Konjic attack 1.20 + Zrinjski defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Zrinjski scores more
68%
level
18%
Igman Konjic scores more
14%

Zrinjski at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Zrinjski will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Zrinjski vs Igman Konjic

Zrinjski beat Igman Konjic 3-0 in Premijer Liga on May 25, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Bijeli Brijeg in Mostar.