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Igman Konjic vs Zrinjski — Premijer Liga 2019

Igman Konjic
Igman Konjic
FT
1 – 4
HT: 1 – 2
Zrinjski
Zrinjski
5/26/2024Premijer LigaPremijer Liga · Round 33Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Igman Konjic24%
×Draw28%
Zrinjski48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Igman Konjic
0.89
Zrinjski
1.38

Zrinjski creates 55% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 109 away

creates per match

Igman Konjic
1.06
Zrinjski
1.45

allows per match

Igman Konjic
1.31
Zrinjski
0.71

finishing

Igman Konjic+0.00on par
Zrinjski+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Igman Konjic ↓

Zrinjski →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–114%
0–210%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Igman Konjic or draw
52%
Igman Konjic or Zrinjski
72%
Draw or Zrinjski
76%

Winning margin

Igman Konjic wins by 2+
8%
Zrinjski wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Igman Konjic 1+ goals
59%
Igman Konjic 2+ goals
22%
Igman Konjic 3+ goals
6%
Zrinjski 1+ goals
75%
Zrinjski 2+ goals
40%
Zrinjski 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Igman Konjic (draw refunded)
33%
Zrinjski (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Igman Konjic at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.31 · 48 matches

Zrinjski away — creates 1.45, concedes 0.71 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Igman Konjic attack 1.06 + Zrinjski defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.89

Zrinjski attack 1.45 + Igman Konjic defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Igman Konjic scores more
24%
level
28%
Zrinjski scores more
48%

Zrinjski at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Zrinjski will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premijer Liga: Igman Konjic 1–4 Zrinjski

Zrinjski beat Igman Konjic 4-1 in Premijer Liga on May 26, 2024.

The match was played at Gradski Stadion in Konjic.