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Zrinjski vs GOŠK Gabela — Premijer Liga 2019

Zrinjski
Zrinjski
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
GOŠK Gabela
GOŠK Gabela
11/11/2024Premijer LigaPremijer Liga · Round 13Stadion Bijeli Brijeg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Zrinjski68%
×Draw19%
GOŠK Gabela14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zrinjski
2.23
GOŠK Gabela
0.88

Zrinjski creates 153% more chances

Season form · 114 home / 34 away

creates per match

Zrinjski
2.26
GOŠK Gabela
1.15

allows per match

Zrinjski
0.61
GOŠK Gabela
2.21

finishing

Zrinjski+0.00on par
GOŠK Gabela+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zrinjski ↓

GOŠK Gabela →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Zrinjski or draw
86%
Zrinjski or GOŠK Gabela
81%
Draw or GOŠK Gabela
32%

Winning margin

Zrinjski wins by 2+
44%
GOŠK Gabela wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Zrinjski 1+ goals
89%
Zrinjski 2+ goals
65%
Zrinjski 3+ goals
38%
GOŠK Gabela 1+ goals
59%
GOŠK Gabela 2+ goals
22%
GOŠK Gabela 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Zrinjski (draw refunded)
83%
GOŠK Gabela (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zrinjski at home — creates 2.26, concedes 0.61 · 114 matches

GOŠK Gabela away — creates 1.15, concedes 2.21 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zrinjski attack 2.26 + GOŠK Gabela defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 2.23

GOŠK Gabela attack 1.15 + Zrinjski defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Zrinjski scores more
68%
level
19%
GOŠK Gabela scores more
14%

Zrinjski at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Zrinjski will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Zrinjski vs GOŠK Gabela

Zrinjski beat GOŠK Gabela 3-0 in Premijer Liga on November 11, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Bijeli Brijeg in Mostar.