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GOŠK Gabela vs Zrinjski — Premijer Liga 2019

GOŠK Gabela
GOŠK Gabela
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Zrinjski
Zrinjski
5/30/2025Premijer LigaPremijer Liga · Round 33Stadion Perica-Pero Pavlović

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

GOŠK Gabela16%
×Draw23%
Zrinjski60%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

GOŠK Gabela
0.77
Zrinjski
1.74

Zrinjski creates 126% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 109 away

creates per match

GOŠK Gabela
0.84
Zrinjski
1.45

allows per match

GOŠK Gabela
2.03
Zrinjski
0.71

finishing

GOŠK Gabela+0.00on par
Zrinjski+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

GOŠK Gabela ↓

Zrinjski →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–114%
0–212%
0–37%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–36%
1–42%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

GOŠK Gabela or draw
40%
GOŠK Gabela or Zrinjski
77%
Draw or Zrinjski
84%

Winning margin

GOŠK Gabela wins by 2+
5%
Zrinjski wins by 2+
34%

Team goals

GOŠK Gabela 1+ goals
54%
GOŠK Gabela 2+ goals
18%
GOŠK Gabela 3+ goals
4%
Zrinjski 1+ goals
82%
Zrinjski 2+ goals
52%
Zrinjski 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

GOŠK Gabela (draw refunded)
21%
Zrinjski (draw refunded)
79%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

GOŠK Gabela at home — creates 0.84, concedes 2.03 · 32 matches

Zrinjski away — creates 1.45, concedes 0.71 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

GOŠK Gabela attack 0.84 + Zrinjski defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.77

Zrinjski attack 1.45 + GOŠK Gabela defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 1.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

GOŠK Gabela scores more
16%
level
23%
Zrinjski scores more
60%

Zrinjski at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Zrinjski will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: GOŠK Gabela vs Zrinjski

GOŠK Gabela beat Zrinjski 3-2 in Premijer Liga on May 30, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Perica-Pero Pavlović in Gabela.