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Zrinjski vs Borac Banja Luka — Premijer Liga 2019

Zrinjski
Zrinjski
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Borac Banja Luka
Borac Banja Luka
4/6/2025Premijer LigaPremijer Liga · Round 24Stadion Bijeli Brijeg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 109+ matches

Zrinjski53%
×Draw25%
Borac Banja Luka22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zrinjski
1.62
Borac Banja Luka
0.96

Zrinjski creates 69% more chances

Season form · 114 home / 109 away

creates per match

Zrinjski
2.26
Borac Banja Luka
1.30

allows per match

Zrinjski
0.61
Borac Banja Luka
0.98

finishing

Zrinjski+0.00on par
Borac Banja Luka+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zrinjski ↓

Borac Banja Luka →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Zrinjski or draw
78%
Zrinjski or Borac Banja Luka
75%
Draw or Borac Banja Luka
47%

Winning margin

Zrinjski wins by 2+
28%
Borac Banja Luka wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Zrinjski 1+ goals
80%
Zrinjski 2+ goals
48%
Zrinjski 3+ goals
22%
Borac Banja Luka 1+ goals
62%
Borac Banja Luka 2+ goals
25%
Borac Banja Luka 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Zrinjski (draw refunded)
70%
Borac Banja Luka (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zrinjski at home — creates 2.26, concedes 0.61 · 114 matches

Borac Banja Luka away — creates 1.30, concedes 0.98 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zrinjski attack 2.26 + Borac Banja Luka defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.62

Borac Banja Luka attack 1.30 + Zrinjski defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Zrinjski scores more
53%
level
25%
Borac Banja Luka scores more
22%

Zrinjski at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Zrinjski will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Zrinjski vs Borac Banja Luka

Borac Banja Luka beat Zrinjski 1-0 in Premijer Liga on April 6, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Bijeli Brijeg in Mostar.