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Borac Banja Luka vs Zrinjski — Premijer Liga 2019

Borac Banja Luka
Borac Banja Luka
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Zrinjski
Zrinjski
12/21/2025Premijer LigaPremijer Liga · Round 3Gradski stadion Banja Luka

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 109+ matches

Borac Banja Luka44%
×Draw27%
Zrinjski29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Borac Banja Luka
1.36
Zrinjski
1.04

Borac Banja Luka creates 31% more chances

Season form · 114 home / 109 away

creates per match

Borac Banja Luka
2.02
Zrinjski
1.45

allows per match

Borac Banja Luka
0.63
Zrinjski
0.71

finishing

Borac Banja Luka+0.00on par
Zrinjski+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Borac Banja Luka ↓

Zrinjski →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Borac Banja Luka or draw
71%
Borac Banja Luka or Zrinjski
73%
Draw or Zrinjski
56%

Winning margin

Borac Banja Luka wins by 2+
21%
Zrinjski wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Borac Banja Luka 1+ goals
74%
Borac Banja Luka 2+ goals
39%
Borac Banja Luka 3+ goals
16%
Zrinjski 1+ goals
65%
Zrinjski 2+ goals
28%
Zrinjski 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Borac Banja Luka (draw refunded)
61%
Zrinjski (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Borac Banja Luka at home — creates 2.02, concedes 0.63 · 114 matches

Zrinjski away — creates 1.45, concedes 0.71 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Borac Banja Luka attack 2.02 + Zrinjski defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 1.36

Zrinjski attack 1.45 + Borac Banja Luka defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Borac Banja Luka scores more
44%
level
27%
Zrinjski scores more
29%

Borac Banja Luka at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Borac Banja Luka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premijer Liga: Borac Banja Luka 0–1 Zrinjski

Zrinjski beat Borac Banja Luka 1-0 in Premijer Liga on December 21, 2025.

The match was played at Gradski stadion Banja Luka in Banja Luka.