Zrinjski U19 2–0 MTK U19: Result & Stats

Zrinjski U19

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

MTK U19

10/23/2019

UEFA Youth League · 1st RoundStadion Bijeli Brijeg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Zrinjski U1943%

×Draw32%

MTK U1925%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Zrinjski U19Expected goals in this matchMTK U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.10

0.77

Zrinjski U19

1.10

MTK U19

0.77

Zrinjski U19 creates 43% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 5 away

1.00

creates per match

1.20

0.33

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Zrinjski U19

1.00

MTK U19

1.20

allows per match

Zrinjski U19

0.33

MTK U19

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zrinjski U19+0.00on par

MTK U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Under71
Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zrinjski U19 ↓

MTK U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–112%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

56%44%2.5

29%71%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Zrinjski U19 or draw

75%

Zrinjski U19 or MTK U19

68%

Draw or MTK U19

57%

Winning margin

Zrinjski U19 wins by 2+

18%

MTK U19 wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Zrinjski U19 1+ goals

67%

Zrinjski U19 2+ goals

30%

Zrinjski U19 3+ goals

10%

MTK U19 1+ goals

54%

MTK U19 2+ goals

18%

MTK U19 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Zrinjski U19 (draw refunded)

63%

MTK U19 (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zrinjski U19 at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

MTK U19 away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zrinjski U19 attack 1.00 + MTK U19 defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.10

MTK U19 attack 1.20 + Zrinjski U19 defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Zrinjski U19 scores more

43%

level

32%

MTK U19 scores more

25%

Zrinjski U19 at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Zrinjski U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff