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MTK U19 vs Zrinjski U19 — UEFA Youth League 2018

MTK U19
MTK U19
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Zrinjski U19
Zrinjski U19
10/2/2019UEFA Youth LeagueUEFA Youth League · 1st RoundHidegkuti Nándor Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

MTK U1961%
×Draw22%
Zrinjski U1917%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

MTK U19
1.83
Zrinjski U19
0.83

MTK U19 creates 120% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 3 away

creates per match

MTK U19
1.33
Zrinjski U19
0.67

allows per match

MTK U19
1.00
Zrinjski U19
2.33

finishing

MTK U19+0.00on par
Zrinjski U19+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

MTK U19 ↓

Zrinjski U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

MTK U19 or draw
83%
MTK U19 or Zrinjski U19
78%
Draw or Zrinjski U19
39%

Winning margin

MTK U19 wins by 2+
36%
Zrinjski U19 wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

MTK U19 1+ goals
84%
MTK U19 2+ goals
54%
MTK U19 3+ goals
28%
Zrinjski U19 1+ goals
56%
Zrinjski U19 2+ goals
20%
Zrinjski U19 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

MTK U19 (draw refunded)
79%
Zrinjski U19 (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

MTK U19 at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.00 · 6 matches

Zrinjski U19 away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

MTK U19 attack 1.33 + Zrinjski U19 defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.83

Zrinjski U19 attack 0.67 + MTK U19 defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

MTK U19 scores more
61%
level
22%
Zrinjski U19 scores more
17%

MTK U19 at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "MTK U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UEFA Youth League: MTK U19 1–1 Zrinjski U19

MTK U19 and Zrinjski U19 drew 1-1 in UEFA Youth League on October 2, 2019.

The match was played at Hidegkuti Nándor Stadion in Budapest.