Zorya Luhansk 1–0 Vorskla Poltava: Result & Stats

Zorya Luhansk

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Vorskla Poltava

2/26/2024

Premier League · Round 18Tsentralnyi Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 82+ matches

Zorya Luhansk48%

×Draw27%

Vorskla Poltava25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Zorya LuhanskExpected goals in this matchVorskla Poltava

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

0.93

Zorya Luhansk

1.42

Vorskla Poltava

0.93

Zorya Luhansk creates 53% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 82 away

1.44

creates per match

0.91

0.94

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Zorya Luhansk

1.44

Vorskla Poltava

0.91

allows per match

Zorya Luhansk

0.94

Vorskla Poltava

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zorya Luhansk+0.00on par

Vorskla Poltava+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zorya Luhansk ↓

Vorskla Poltava →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Zorya Luhansk or draw

75%

Zorya Luhansk or Vorskla Poltava

73%

Draw or Vorskla Poltava

52%

Winning margin

Zorya Luhansk wins by 2+

24%

Vorskla Poltava wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Zorya Luhansk 1+ goals

76%

Zorya Luhansk 2+ goals

41%

Zorya Luhansk 3+ goals

17%

Vorskla Poltava 1+ goals

61%

Vorskla Poltava 2+ goals

24%

Vorskla Poltava 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Zorya Luhansk (draw refunded)

66%

Vorskla Poltava (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zorya Luhansk at home — creates 1.44, concedes 0.94 · 98 matches

Vorskla Poltava away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.40 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zorya Luhansk attack 1.44 + Vorskla Poltava defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.42

Vorskla Poltava attack 0.91 + Zorya Luhansk defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Zorya Luhansk scores more

48%

level

27%

Vorskla Poltava scores more

25%

Zorya Luhansk at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Zorya Luhansk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff