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Vorskla Poltava vs Zorya Luhansk — Premier League 2019

Vorskla Poltava
Vorskla Poltava
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Zorya Luhansk
Zorya Luhansk
4/5/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 23Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butovskoho

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 83+ matches

Vorskla Poltava33%
×Draw26%
Zorya Luhansk41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vorskla Poltava
1.27
Zorya Luhansk
1.43

Zorya Luhansk creates 13% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 98 away

creates per match

Vorskla Poltava
1.31
Zorya Luhansk
1.62

allows per match

Vorskla Poltava
1.24
Zorya Luhansk
1.23

finishing

Vorskla Poltava+0.00on par
Zorya Luhansk+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vorskla Poltava ↓

Zorya Luhansk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Vorskla Poltava or draw
59%
Vorskla Poltava or Zorya Luhansk
74%
Draw or Zorya Luhansk
67%

Winning margin

Vorskla Poltava wins by 2+
14%
Zorya Luhansk wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Vorskla Poltava 1+ goals
72%
Vorskla Poltava 2+ goals
36%
Vorskla Poltava 3+ goals
14%
Zorya Luhansk 1+ goals
76%
Zorya Luhansk 2+ goals
42%
Zorya Luhansk 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Vorskla Poltava (draw refunded)
45%
Zorya Luhansk (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vorskla Poltava at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.24 · 83 matches

Zorya Luhansk away — creates 1.62, concedes 1.23 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vorskla Poltava attack 1.31 + Zorya Luhansk defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.27

Zorya Luhansk attack 1.62 + Vorskla Poltava defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Vorskla Poltava scores more
33%
level
26%
Zorya Luhansk scores more
41%

Zorya Luhansk at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Zorya Luhansk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Vorskla Poltava 1–2 Zorya Luhansk

Zorya Luhansk beat Vorskla Poltava 2-1 in Premier League on April 5, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butovskoho in Poltava.