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Zorya Luhansk vs Vorskla Poltava — Premier League 2026

Zorya Luhansk
Zorya Luhansk
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Vorskla Poltava
Vorskla Poltava
11/8/2020Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 9Slavutych-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 82+ matches

Zorya Luhansk49%
×Draw27%
Vorskla Poltava24%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zorya Luhansk
1.44
Vorskla Poltava
0.91

Zorya Luhansk creates 58% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 82 away

creates per match

Zorya Luhansk
1.49
Vorskla Poltava
0.91

allows per match

Zorya Luhansk
0.91
Vorskla Poltava
1.40

finishing

Zorya Luhansk+0.00on par
Vorskla Poltava+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zorya Luhansk ↓

Vorskla Poltava →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Zorya Luhansk or draw
76%
Zorya Luhansk or Vorskla Poltava
73%
Draw or Vorskla Poltava
51%

Winning margin

Zorya Luhansk wins by 2+
24%
Vorskla Poltava wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Zorya Luhansk 1+ goals
76%
Zorya Luhansk 2+ goals
42%
Zorya Luhansk 3+ goals
18%
Vorskla Poltava 1+ goals
60%
Vorskla Poltava 2+ goals
23%
Vorskla Poltava 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Zorya Luhansk (draw refunded)
67%
Vorskla Poltava (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zorya Luhansk at home — creates 1.49, concedes 0.91 · 104 matches

Vorskla Poltava away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.40 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zorya Luhansk attack 1.49 + Vorskla Poltava defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.44

Vorskla Poltava attack 0.91 + Zorya Luhansk defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Zorya Luhansk scores more
49%
level
27%
Vorskla Poltava scores more
24%

Zorya Luhansk at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Zorya Luhansk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'
Vladlen Yurchenko
24'
Vladyslav Kabaev
46'
P. Rebenok← D. Shcherbak
47'
Pavlo Rebenok
50'
Igor Perduta
60'
Dmytro Khomchenovskyi
63'
E. Nazaryna← V. Kabaev
69'
Pavlo Rebenok
69'
Pavlo Rebenok
76'
D. Kravchuk← R. Stepanyuk
77'
A. Sayyadmanesh← A. Gromov
85'
D. Vasin← S. Yavorskyi
90'
Danilo Kravchuk

Possession

52%Zorya

Shots

12Zorya

Statistics

ZoryaVorskla
Overview
52%Possession48%
12Total Shots5
5Corners9
21Fouls15
Shots
12Total Shots5
6On Target1
6Off Target4
Passing
52%Possession48%
Goalkeeping
2Saves6
Discipline
21Fouls15
2Yellow Cards3
1Red Cards1

Match Recap: Zorya Luhansk vs Vorskla Poltava

Zorya Luhansk and Vorskla Poltava drew 0-0 in Premier League on November 8, 2020.

Zorya Luhansk controlled possession (52%) and registered 12 shots to 5.

The match was played at Slavutych-Arena in Zaporizhzhia.