Zorya Luhansk 1–0 Olimpik Donetsk: Result & Stats

Zorya Luhansk

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Olimpik Donetsk

3/1/2020

Premier League · Round 20Slavutych-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Zorya Luhansk53%

×Draw25%

Olimpik Donetsk22%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Zorya LuhanskExpected goals in this matchOlimpik Donetsk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

0.93

Zorya Luhansk

1.60

Olimpik Donetsk

0.93

Zorya Luhansk creates 72% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 34 away

1.49

creates per match

0.94

0.91

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Zorya Luhansk

1.49

Olimpik Donetsk

0.94

allows per match

Zorya Luhansk

0.91

Olimpik Donetsk

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zorya Luhansk+0.00on par

Olimpik Donetsk+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zorya Luhansk ↓

Olimpik Donetsk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Zorya Luhansk or draw

78%

Zorya Luhansk or Olimpik Donetsk

75%

Draw or Olimpik Donetsk

47%

Winning margin

Zorya Luhansk wins by 2+

28%

Olimpik Donetsk wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Zorya Luhansk 1+ goals

80%

Zorya Luhansk 2+ goals

47%

Zorya Luhansk 3+ goals

22%

Olimpik Donetsk 1+ goals

61%

Olimpik Donetsk 2+ goals

24%

Olimpik Donetsk 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Zorya Luhansk (draw refunded)

71%

Olimpik Donetsk (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zorya Luhansk at home — creates 1.49, concedes 0.91 · 104 matches

Olimpik Donetsk away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.71 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zorya Luhansk attack 1.49 + Olimpik Donetsk defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.60

Olimpik Donetsk attack 0.94 + Zorya Luhansk defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Zorya Luhansk scores more

53%

level

25%

Olimpik Donetsk scores more

22%

Zorya Luhansk at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Zorya Luhansk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff