Olimpik Donetsk 0–5 Zorya Luhansk: Result & Stats

Olimpik Donetsk

FT

0 – 5

HT: 0 – 1

Zorya Luhansk

9/29/2019

Premier League · Round 9Stadion Dynamo im. Valery Lobanovsky

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Olimpik Donetsk27%

×Draw24%

Zorya Luhansk49%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Olimpik DonetskExpected goals in this matchZorya Luhansk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.18

1.67

Olimpik Donetsk

1.18

Zorya Luhansk

1.67

Zorya Luhansk creates 42% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 103 away

1.12

creates per match

1.60

1.74

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Olimpik Donetsk

1.12

Zorya Luhansk

1.60

allows per match

Olimpik Donetsk

1.74

Zorya Luhansk

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Olimpik Donetsk+0.00on par

Zorya Luhansk+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olimpik Donetsk ↓

Zorya Luhansk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–110%

0–28%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–210%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Olimpik Donetsk or draw

51%

Olimpik Donetsk or Zorya Luhansk

76%

Draw or Zorya Luhansk

73%

Winning margin

Olimpik Donetsk wins by 2+

11%

Zorya Luhansk wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Olimpik Donetsk 1+ goals

69%

Olimpik Donetsk 2+ goals

33%

Olimpik Donetsk 3+ goals

12%

Zorya Luhansk 1+ goals

81%

Zorya Luhansk 2+ goals

50%

Zorya Luhansk 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Olimpik Donetsk (draw refunded)

36%

Zorya Luhansk (draw refunded)

64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olimpik Donetsk at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.74 · 34 matches

Zorya Luhansk away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.24 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olimpik Donetsk attack 1.12 + Zorya Luhansk defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.18

Zorya Luhansk attack 1.60 + Olimpik Donetsk defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Olimpik Donetsk scores more

27%

level

24%

Zorya Luhansk scores more

49%

Zorya Luhansk at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Zorya Luhansk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff