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Zorya Luhansk vs Minai — Premier League 2019

Zorya Luhansk
Zorya Luhansk
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Minai
Minai
3/7/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 20Stadion Livyi Bereh

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Zorya Luhansk57%
×Draw25%
Minai18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zorya Luhansk
1.58
Minai
0.77

Zorya Luhansk creates 105% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 53 away

creates per match

Zorya Luhansk
1.44
Minai
0.60

allows per match

Zorya Luhansk
0.94
Minai
1.72

finishing

Zorya Luhansk+0.00on par
Minai+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zorya Luhansk ↓

Minai →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Zorya Luhansk or draw
82%
Zorya Luhansk or Minai
75%
Draw or Minai
43%

Winning margin

Zorya Luhansk wins by 2+
30%
Minai wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Zorya Luhansk 1+ goals
79%
Zorya Luhansk 2+ goals
47%
Zorya Luhansk 3+ goals
21%
Minai 1+ goals
54%
Minai 2+ goals
18%
Minai 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Zorya Luhansk (draw refunded)
76%
Minai (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zorya Luhansk at home — creates 1.44, concedes 0.94 · 98 matches

Minai away — creates 0.60, concedes 1.72 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zorya Luhansk attack 1.44 + Minai defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.58

Minai attack 0.60 + Zorya Luhansk defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Zorya Luhansk scores more
57%
level
25%
Minai scores more
18%

Zorya Luhansk at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Zorya Luhansk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Zorya Luhansk vs Minai

Zorya Luhansk beat Minai 2-0 in Premier League on March 7, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Livyi Bereh in Kiev.