Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Minai vs Zorya Luhansk — Premier League 2019

Minai
Minai
CANC
12:00
Zorya Luhansk
Zorya Luhansk
2/25/2022Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 19Stadion Avanhard

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Minai27%
×Draw26%
Zorya Luhansk48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Minai
1.05
Zorya Luhansk
1.50

Zorya Luhansk creates 43% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 98 away

creates per match

Minai
0.87
Zorya Luhansk
1.62

allows per match

Minai
1.38
Zorya Luhansk
1.23

finishing

Minai+0.00on par
Zorya Luhansk+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Minai ↓

Zorya Luhansk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–112%
0–29%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Minai or draw
52%
Minai or Zorya Luhansk
74%
Draw or Zorya Luhansk
73%

Winning margin

Minai wins by 2+
10%
Zorya Luhansk wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Minai 1+ goals
65%
Minai 2+ goals
28%
Minai 3+ goals
9%
Zorya Luhansk 1+ goals
78%
Zorya Luhansk 2+ goals
44%
Zorya Luhansk 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Minai (draw refunded)
36%
Zorya Luhansk (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Minai at home — creates 0.87, concedes 1.38 · 52 matches

Zorya Luhansk away — creates 1.62, concedes 1.23 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Minai attack 0.87 + Zorya Luhansk defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.05

Zorya Luhansk attack 1.62 + Minai defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Minai scores more
27%
level
26%
Zorya Luhansk scores more
48%

Zorya Luhansk at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Zorya Luhansk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Minai host Zorya Luhansk

February 25, 2022: Minai take on Zorya Luhansk in Premier League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Minai host Zorya Luhansk at Stadion Avanhard.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.