Zorya Luhansk 1–0 Leicester: Result & Stats

Zorya Luhansk

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Leicester

A. Sayyadmanesh 84'

12/3/2020

UEFA Europa League · Group G - 5Slavutych-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Zorya Luhansk36%

×Draw24%

Leicester40%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Zorya LuhanskExpected goals in this matchLeicester

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.57

Zorya Luhansk

1.50

Leicester

1.57

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 7 away

1.29

creates per match

1.57

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Zorya Luhansk

1.29

Leicester

1.57

allows per match

Zorya Luhansk

1.57

Leicester

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zorya Luhansk+0.00on par

Leicester+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zorya Luhansk ↓

Leicester →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Zorya Luhansk or draw

60%

Zorya Luhansk or Leicester

76%

Draw or Leicester

64%

Winning margin

Zorya Luhansk wins by 2+

17%

Leicester wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Zorya Luhansk 1+ goals

78%

Zorya Luhansk 2+ goals

44%

Zorya Luhansk 3+ goals

19%

Leicester 1+ goals

79%

Leicester 2+ goals

46%

Leicester 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Zorya Luhansk (draw refunded)

48%

Leicester (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zorya Luhansk at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.57 · 7 matches

Leicester away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.71 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zorya Luhansk attack 1.29 + Leicester defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.50

Leicester attack 1.57 + Zorya Luhansk defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Zorya Luhansk scores more

36%

level

24%

Leicester scores more

40%

Leicester at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Leicester will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23

N. Vasilj

Zorya Luhansk · G

7.6

Match Events

17'

W. Fofana← Ç. Söyüncü

32'

Andrejs Cigaņiks

42'

Ricardo Pereira

45'

Kelechi Iheanacho

46'

L. Thomas← Ricardo Pereira

56'

56'

58'

74'

77'

J. Maddison← D. Praet

81'

A. Sayyadmanesh← O. Gladkyi

84'

A. Sayyadmanesh↳ D. Favorov

87'

Wesley Fofana

90+3'

M. Perović← A. Gromov

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ZoryaLeicester

Overview

48%Possession52%

13Total Shots15

7Corners1

14Fouls11

Shots

13Total Shots15

3On Target4

8Off Target8

2Blocked3

6Inside Box7

7Outside Box8

Passing

48%Possession52%

413Total Passes452

307Accurate Passes337

74%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

4Saves2

Discipline

14Fouls11

2Yellow Cards4

1Offsides0