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Leicester vs Zorya Luhansk — UEFA Europa League 2026

Leicester
Leicester
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Zorya Luhansk
Zorya Luhansk
10/22/2020UEFA Europa LeagueUEFA Europa League · Group G - 1King Power Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Leicester59%
×Draw21%
Zorya Luhansk19%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Leicester
2.01
Zorya Luhansk
1.05

Leicester creates 91% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 8 away

creates per match

Leicester
2.14
Zorya Luhansk
1.25

allows per match

Leicester
0.86
Zorya Luhansk
1.88

finishing

Leicester+0.00on par
Zorya Luhansk+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leicester ↓

Zorya Luhansk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Leicester or draw
81%
Leicester or Zorya Luhansk
79%
Draw or Zorya Luhansk
41%

Winning margin

Leicester wins by 2+
36%
Zorya Luhansk wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Leicester 1+ goals
87%
Leicester 2+ goals
59%
Leicester 3+ goals
32%
Zorya Luhansk 1+ goals
65%
Zorya Luhansk 2+ goals
28%
Zorya Luhansk 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Leicester (draw refunded)
76%
Zorya Luhansk (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leicester at home — creates 2.14, concedes 0.86 · 7 matches

Zorya Luhansk away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.88 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leicester attack 2.14 + Zorya Luhansk defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 2.01

Zorya Luhansk attack 1.25 + Leicester defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Leicester scores more
59%
level
21%
Zorya Luhansk scores more
19%

Leicester at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Leicester will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UEFA Europa League: Leicester 3–0 Zorya Luhansk

Leicester beat Zorya Luhansk 3-0 in UEFA Europa League on October 22, 2020.

The match was played at King Power Stadium in Leicester, Leicestershire.