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Zorya Luhansk vs Lechia Gdansk — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Zorya Luhansk
Zorya Luhansk
CANC
00:00
Lechia Gdansk
Lechia Gdansk
2/9/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3TBC

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Zorya Luhansk38%
×Draw24%
Lechia Gdansk38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zorya Luhansk
1.56
Lechia Gdansk
1.54

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 5 away

creates per match

Zorya Luhansk
1.53
Lechia Gdansk
1.60

allows per match

Zorya Luhansk
1.47
Lechia Gdansk
1.60

finishing

Zorya Luhansk+0.00on par
Lechia Gdansk+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zorya Luhansk ↓

Lechia Gdansk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Zorya Luhansk or draw
62%
Zorya Luhansk or Lechia Gdansk
76%
Draw or Lechia Gdansk
62%

Winning margin

Zorya Luhansk wins by 2+
19%
Lechia Gdansk wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Zorya Luhansk 1+ goals
79%
Zorya Luhansk 2+ goals
46%
Zorya Luhansk 3+ goals
21%
Lechia Gdansk 1+ goals
79%
Lechia Gdansk 2+ goals
45%
Lechia Gdansk 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Zorya Luhansk (draw refunded)
51%
Lechia Gdansk (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zorya Luhansk at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.47 · 15 matches

Lechia Gdansk away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zorya Luhansk attack 1.53 + Lechia Gdansk defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.56

Lechia Gdansk attack 1.60 + Zorya Luhansk defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Zorya Luhansk scores more
38%
level
24%
Lechia Gdansk scores more
38%

Zorya Luhansk at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Zorya Luhansk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Zorya Luhansk face Lechia Gdansk (Friendlies Clubs)

Friendlies Clubs returns with Zorya Luhansk hosting Lechia Gdansk. Match starts February 9, 2024. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Zorya Luhansk host Lechia Gdansk at TBC.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.