Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Lechia Gdansk vs Zorya Luhansk — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Lechia Gdansk
Lechia Gdansk
CANC
13:00
Zorya Luhansk
Zorya Luhansk
2/9/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Lechia Gdansk18%
×Draw17%
Zorya Luhansk65%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lechia Gdansk
1.43
Zorya Luhansk
2.77

Zorya Luhansk creates 94% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 10 away

creates per match

Lechia Gdansk
1.25
Zorya Luhansk
3.80

allows per match

Lechia Gdansk
1.75
Zorya Luhansk
1.60

finishing

Lechia Gdansk+0.00on par
Zorya Luhansk+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lechia Gdansk ↓

Zorya Luhansk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–26%
0–35%
0–44%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–28%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–26%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
59%41%4.5
40%60%

Double chance

Lechia Gdansk or draw
35%
Lechia Gdansk or Zorya Luhansk
83%
Draw or Zorya Luhansk
82%

Winning margin

Lechia Gdansk wins by 2+
8%
Zorya Luhansk wins by 2+
44%

Team goals

Lechia Gdansk 1+ goals
76%
Lechia Gdansk 2+ goals
42%
Lechia Gdansk 3+ goals
17%
Zorya Luhansk 1+ goals
94%
Zorya Luhansk 2+ goals
76%
Zorya Luhansk 3+ goals
51%

Draw no bet

Lechia Gdansk (draw refunded)
22%
Zorya Luhansk (draw refunded)
78%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lechia Gdansk at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.75 · 12 matches

Zorya Luhansk away — creates 3.80, concedes 1.60 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lechia Gdansk attack 1.25 + Zorya Luhansk defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.43

Zorya Luhansk attack 3.80 + Lechia Gdansk defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 2.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Lechia Gdansk scores more
18%
level
17%
Zorya Luhansk scores more
65%

Zorya Luhansk at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Zorya Luhansk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Lechia Gdansk face Zorya Luhansk (Friendlies Clubs)

Friendlies Clubs returns with Lechia Gdansk hosting Zorya Luhansk. Match starts February 9, 2024. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.