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Zorya Luhansk vs Espanyol — UEFA Europa League 2026

Zorya Luhansk
Zorya Luhansk
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Espanyol
Espanyol
8/29/2019UEFA Europa LeagueUEFA Europa League · Play-offsSlavutych-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Zorya Luhansk32%
×Draw24%
Espanyol44%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zorya Luhansk
1.38
Espanyol
1.67

Espanyol creates 21% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 6 away

creates per match

Zorya Luhansk
1.25
Espanyol
1.83

allows per match

Zorya Luhansk
1.50
Espanyol
1.50

finishing

Zorya Luhansk+0.00on par
Espanyol+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zorya Luhansk ↓

Espanyol →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Zorya Luhansk or draw
56%
Zorya Luhansk or Espanyol
76%
Draw or Espanyol
68%

Winning margin

Zorya Luhansk wins by 2+
14%
Espanyol wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Zorya Luhansk 1+ goals
75%
Zorya Luhansk 2+ goals
40%
Zorya Luhansk 3+ goals
16%
Espanyol 1+ goals
81%
Espanyol 2+ goals
50%
Espanyol 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Zorya Luhansk (draw refunded)
42%
Espanyol (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zorya Luhansk at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.50 · 8 matches

Espanyol away — creates 1.83, concedes 1.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zorya Luhansk attack 1.25 + Espanyol defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.38

Espanyol attack 1.83 + Zorya Luhansk defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Zorya Luhansk scores more
32%
level
24%
Espanyol scores more
44%

Espanyol at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Espanyol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UEFA Europa League: Zorya Luhansk 2–2 Espanyol

Zorya Luhansk and Espanyol drew 2-2 in UEFA Europa League on August 29, 2019.

The match was played at Slavutych-Arena in Zaporozh'ye.