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Espanyol vs Zorya Luhansk — UEFA Europa League 2026

Espanyol
Espanyol
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Zorya Luhansk
Zorya Luhansk
8/22/2019UEFA Europa LeagueUEFA Europa League · Play-offsRCDE Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Espanyol68%
×Draw18%
Zorya Luhansk14%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Espanyol
2.37
Zorya Luhansk
0.98

Espanyol creates 142% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 8 away

creates per match

Espanyol
2.86
Zorya Luhansk
1.25

allows per match

Espanyol
0.71
Zorya Luhansk
1.88

finishing

Espanyol+0.00on par
Zorya Luhansk+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Espanyol ↓

Zorya Luhansk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Espanyol or draw
86%
Espanyol or Zorya Luhansk
82%
Draw or Zorya Luhansk
32%

Winning margin

Espanyol wins by 2+
45%
Zorya Luhansk wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Espanyol 1+ goals
91%
Espanyol 2+ goals
68%
Espanyol 3+ goals
42%
Zorya Luhansk 1+ goals
62%
Zorya Luhansk 2+ goals
26%
Zorya Luhansk 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Espanyol (draw refunded)
83%
Zorya Luhansk (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Espanyol at home — creates 2.86, concedes 0.71 · 7 matches

Zorya Luhansk away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.88 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Espanyol attack 2.86 + Zorya Luhansk defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 2.37

Zorya Luhansk attack 1.25 + Espanyol defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Espanyol scores more
68%
level
18%
Zorya Luhansk scores more
14%

Espanyol at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Espanyol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Espanyol vs Zorya Luhansk

Espanyol beat Zorya Luhansk 3-1 in UEFA Europa League on August 22, 2019.

The match was played at RCDE Stadium in Cornella de Llobregat.