Zorya Luhansk 0–4 Buducnost Podgorica

Zorya Luhansk

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 2

Buducnost Podgorica

O. Gasevic 62'

O. Sarkic 59'

M. Milickovic 45'

L. Mijovic 38'

1/26/2025

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Club Megasaray Football Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Zorya Luhansk36%

×Draw24%

Buducnost Podgorica40%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Zorya LuhanskExpected goals in this matchBuducnost Podgorica

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.54

Zorya Luhansk

1.46

Buducnost Podgorica

1.54

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 6 away

1.41

creates per match

1.50

1.59

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Zorya Luhansk

1.41

Buducnost Podgorica

1.50

allows per match

Zorya Luhansk

1.59

Buducnost Podgorica

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zorya Luhansk+0.00on par

Buducnost Podgorica+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zorya Luhansk ↓

Buducnost Podgorica →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Zorya Luhansk or draw

60%

Zorya Luhansk or Buducnost Podgorica

76%

Draw or Buducnost Podgorica

64%

Winning margin

Zorya Luhansk wins by 2+

17%

Buducnost Podgorica wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Zorya Luhansk 1+ goals

77%

Zorya Luhansk 2+ goals

43%

Zorya Luhansk 3+ goals

18%

Buducnost Podgorica 1+ goals

79%

Buducnost Podgorica 2+ goals

45%

Buducnost Podgorica 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Zorya Luhansk (draw refunded)

48%

Buducnost Podgorica (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zorya Luhansk at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.59 · 17 matches

Buducnost Podgorica away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zorya Luhansk attack 1.41 + Buducnost Podgorica defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.46

Buducnost Podgorica attack 1.50 + Zorya Luhansk defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Zorya Luhansk scores more

36%

level

24%

Buducnost Podgorica scores more

40%

Buducnost Podgorica at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Buducnost Podgorica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

38'

45'

59'

62'

Zorya

Buducnost

⚽

⚽

Manager: Viktor Skrypnyk

Zorya Luhansk substitutes

TurbayevskyiVasyletsNwaezeGusevDryshlyukKorablinSlesarGorbachVakulaSupryaga

Buducnost Podgorica substitutes

DomazetovicDjurovicGrivicTomasevicGasevicVukanicDjukanovicSarkicGrbicIvanovicKosticPopovic