Zorya Luhansk 1–0 Buducnost Podgorica

Zorya Luhansk

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Buducnost Podgorica

A. Gromov 32'

8/1/2019

UEFA Europa League · 2nd Qualifying RoundSlavutych-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Zorya Luhansk29%

×Draw28%

Buducnost Podgorica43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Zorya LuhanskExpected goals in this matchBuducnost Podgorica

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.02

1.29

Zorya Luhansk

1.02

Buducnost Podgorica

1.29

Buducnost Podgorica creates 26% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 4 away

1.29

creates per match

1.00

1.57

allows per match

0.75

creates per match

Zorya Luhansk

1.29

Buducnost Podgorica

1.00

allows per match

Zorya Luhansk

1.57

Buducnost Podgorica

0.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zorya Luhansk+0.00on par

Buducnost Podgorica+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zorya Luhansk ↓

Buducnost Podgorica →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–113%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Zorya Luhansk or draw

57%

Zorya Luhansk or Buducnost Podgorica

72%

Draw or Buducnost Podgorica

71%

Winning margin

Zorya Luhansk wins by 2+

11%

Buducnost Podgorica wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Zorya Luhansk 1+ goals

64%

Zorya Luhansk 2+ goals

27%

Zorya Luhansk 3+ goals

8%

Buducnost Podgorica 1+ goals

72%

Buducnost Podgorica 2+ goals

37%

Buducnost Podgorica 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Zorya Luhansk (draw refunded)

41%

Buducnost Podgorica (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zorya Luhansk at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.57 · 7 matches

Buducnost Podgorica away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zorya Luhansk attack 1.29 + Buducnost Podgorica defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.02

Buducnost Podgorica attack 1.00 + Zorya Luhansk defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Zorya Luhansk scores more

29%

level

28%

Buducnost Podgorica scores more

43%

Buducnost Podgorica at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Buducnost Podgorica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

25'

Nikola Djuric

26'

Luka Mirković

32'

A. Gromov

33'

Nikola Djuric

33'

Nikola Djuric

34'

Draško Božović

35'

Petar Grbić

37'

B. Roganović← M. Perović

53'

M. Raičković← P. Grbić

61'

V. Kabaev← A. Gromov

64'

M. Kamenyuka← O. Tymchyk

68'

I. Chaykovskyi← V. Kochergin

75'

D. Zarubica← D. Stoiljković

Zorya4-3-3

Buducnost4-3-3

20

Mijić

18

▼

Grbić

9

▼

29

7

8

30

▼

Stoiljkov

23

Boljevic

24

Milic

80

Djuric

1

1

20

98

15

18

▼

Timcik

7

▼

Kochergin

21

Ivaniseni

17

Lednev

10

Khomcheno

28

⚽

▼

Gromov

19

Lunyov

Manager: V. Skripnik

61'▲V. Kabaev←▼A. Gromov

64'▲M. Kamenyuka←▼O. Tymchyk

68'▲I. Chaykovskyi←▼V. Kochergin

Zorya Luhansk substitutes

30Shevchenko6Kamenyuka14Mykhaylichenko25Bily77Chaykovsky22Kabaev99Arveladze

Manager: B. Brnović

37'▲B. Roganović←▼M. Perović

53'▲M. Raičković←▼P. Grbić

75'▲D. Zarubica←▼D. Stoiljković

Buducnost Podgorica substitutes

27Radović6Roganovic22Vučić4Vukčević77Bojovic19Raičković99Zarubica

UEFA Europa League: Zorya Luhansk 1–0 Buducnost Podgorica

Zorya Luhansk beat Buducnost Podgorica 1-0 in UEFA Europa League on August 1, 2019.

Goals: A. Gromov (32').

The match was played at Slavutych-Arena in Zaporozh'ye.

Zorya Luhansk vs Buducnost Podgorica — UEFA Europa League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

UEFA Europa League: Zorya Luhansk 1–0 Buducnost Podgorica