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Zorya Luhansk vs AS Roma — UEFA Europa Conference League 2026

Zorya Luhansk
Zorya Luhansk
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
AS Roma
AS Roma
T. Abraham 68'
C. Smalling 66'
S. El Shaarawy 6'
9/30/2021UEFA Europa Conference LeagueUEFA Europa Conference League · Group Stage - 2Slavutych-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Zorya Luhansk41%
×Draw24%
AS Roma35%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zorya Luhansk
1.57
AS Roma
1.42

Zorya Luhansk creates 11% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 7 away

creates per match

Zorya Luhansk
1.43
AS Roma
1.71

allows per match

Zorya Luhansk
1.14
AS Roma
1.71

finishing

Zorya Luhansk+0.00on par
AS Roma+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zorya Luhansk ↓

AS Roma →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Zorya Luhansk or draw
65%
Zorya Luhansk or AS Roma
76%
Draw or AS Roma
59%

Winning margin

Zorya Luhansk wins by 2+
20%
AS Roma wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Zorya Luhansk 1+ goals
79%
Zorya Luhansk 2+ goals
46%
Zorya Luhansk 3+ goals
21%
AS Roma 1+ goals
76%
AS Roma 2+ goals
41%
AS Roma 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Zorya Luhansk (draw refunded)
54%
AS Roma (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zorya Luhansk at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.14 · 7 matches

AS Roma away — creates 1.71, concedes 1.71 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zorya Luhansk attack 1.43 + AS Roma defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.57

AS Roma attack 1.71 + Zorya Luhansk defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Zorya Luhansk scores more
41%
level
24%
AS Roma scores more
35%

Zorya Luhansk at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Zorya Luhansk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

92
S. El ShaarawyAS RomaAS Roma · M
8.2

Match Events

6'
S. El Shaarawy↳ E. Darboe
62'
N. Zaniolo← Carles Pérez
62'
T. Abraham← E. Shomurodov
66'
C. Smalling↳ B. Cristante
68'
T. Abraham↳ N. Zaniolo
69'
Cristian← S. Buletsa
69'
S. Zahedi← A. Sayyadmanesh
70'
A. Diawara← E. Darboe
77'
Gonzalo Villar← L. Pellegrini
78'
Borja Mayoral← S. El Shaarawy
81'
Marash Kumbulla
83'
Rui Patrício
83'
M. Lunev← V. Kabaev
90+2'
R. Owusu← A. Gromov
90+2'
I. Snurnitsyn← D. Favorov

Possession

47%Zorya

Shots

12Zorya

Pass accuracy

49%Zorya

Statistics

ZoryaAS
Overview
47%Possession53%
12Total Shots18
5Corners5
9Fouls14
Shots
12Total Shots18
2On Target10
3Off Target5
7Blocked3
4Inside Box9
8Outside Box9
Passing
47%Possession53%
419Total Passes480
325Accurate Passes394
78%Pass Accuracy82%
Goalkeeping
7Saves2
Discipline
9Fouls14
0Yellow Cards2
1Offsides0

Match Recap: Zorya Luhansk vs AS Roma

AS Roma beat Zorya Luhansk 3-0 in UEFA Europa Conference League on September 30, 2021.

Goals: S. El Shaarawy (6'), C. Smalling (66'), T. Abraham (68').

AS Roma controlled possession (53%) and registered 18 shots to 12.

The match was played at Slavutych-Arena in Zaporozh'ye.