AS Roma 4–0 Zorya Luhansk: Result & Stats

AS Roma

FT

4 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Zorya Luhansk

T. Abraham 75', 46'

N. Zaniolo 33'

Carles Pérez 15'

11/25/2021

UEFA Europa Conference League · Group Stage - 5Stadio Olimpico

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

AS Roma77%

×Draw15%

Zorya Luhansk8%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AS RomaExpected goals in this matchZorya Luhansk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.53

0.68

AS Roma

2.53

Zorya Luhansk

0.68

AS Roma creates 272% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 7 away

2.63

creates per match

0.86

0.50

allows per match

2.43

creates per match

AS Roma

2.63

Zorya Luhansk

0.86

allows per match

AS Roma

0.50

Zorya Luhansk

2.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

AS Roma+0.00on par

Zorya Luhansk+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AS Roma ↓

Zorya Luhansk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–17%

1–22%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–011%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–07%

4–15%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

AS Roma or draw

92%

AS Roma or Zorya Luhansk

85%

Draw or Zorya Luhansk

23%

Winning margin

AS Roma wins by 2+

55%

Zorya Luhansk wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

AS Roma 1+ goals

92%

AS Roma 2+ goals

71%

AS Roma 3+ goals

46%

Zorya Luhansk 1+ goals

49%

Zorya Luhansk 2+ goals

15%

Zorya Luhansk 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

AS Roma (draw refunded)

91%

Zorya Luhansk (draw refunded)

9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AS Roma at home — creates 2.63, concedes 0.50 · 8 matches

Zorya Luhansk away — creates 0.86, concedes 2.43 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AS Roma attack 2.63 + Zorya Luhansk defence 2.43 → ÷2 → 2.53

Zorya Luhansk attack 0.86 + AS Roma defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 77%?"

AS Roma scores more

77%

level

15%

Zorya Luhansk scores more

8%

AS Roma at 77% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 77% does not mean "AS Roma will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22

N. Zaniolo

AS Roma · F

9.2

Match Events

15'

Carles Pérez↳ S. El Shaarawy

33'

N. Zaniolo↳ J. Veretout

46'

O. Gladkyi← S. Zahedi

46'

E. Nazaryna← A. Gromov

46'

T. Abraham↳ N. Zaniolo

70'

E. Shomurodov← N. Zaniolo

70'

Ibañez← C. Smalling

70'

N. Zalewski← S. El Shaarawy

70'

I. Snurnitsyn← Juninho

75'

T. Abraham

76'

Borja Mayoral← T. Abraham

79'

F. Missori← H. Mkhitaryan

83'

Cristian← S. Buletsa

83'

R. Owusu← A. Sayyadmanesh

90+1'

Gianluca Mancini

90'

Rick Karsdorp

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ASZorya

Overview

54%Possession46%

19Total Shots8

8Corners5

12Fouls10

Shots

19Total Shots8

9On Target2

7Off Target4

3Blocked2

17Inside Box2

2Outside Box6

Passing

54%Possession46%

497Total Passes424

434Accurate Passes363

87%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

2Saves5

Discipline

12Fouls10

2Yellow Cards0

1Offsides0