Zorya Luhansk U19 2–0 Kryvbas 2020 U19

Zorya Luhansk U19

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Kryvbas 2020 U19

10/19/2024

U19 League · Round 10NTB Dynamo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Zorya Luhansk U1946%

×Draw23%

Kryvbas 2020 U1931%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Zorya Luhansk U19Expected goals in this matchKryvbas 2020 U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

1.38

Zorya Luhansk U19

1.73

Kryvbas 2020 U19

1.38

Zorya Luhansk U19 creates 25% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 45 away

1.47

creates per match

1.38

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Zorya Luhansk U19

1.47

Kryvbas 2020 U19

1.38

allows per match

Zorya Luhansk U19

1.38

Kryvbas 2020 U19

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zorya Luhansk U19+0.00on par

Kryvbas 2020 U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zorya Luhansk U19 ↓

Kryvbas 2020 U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Zorya Luhansk U19 or draw

69%

Zorya Luhansk U19 or Kryvbas 2020 U19

77%

Draw or Kryvbas 2020 U19

54%

Winning margin

Zorya Luhansk U19 wins by 2+

24%

Kryvbas 2020 U19 wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Zorya Luhansk U19 1+ goals

82%

Zorya Luhansk U19 2+ goals

52%

Zorya Luhansk U19 3+ goals

25%

Kryvbas 2020 U19 1+ goals

75%

Kryvbas 2020 U19 2+ goals

40%

Kryvbas 2020 U19 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Zorya Luhansk U19 (draw refunded)

60%

Kryvbas 2020 U19 (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zorya Luhansk U19 at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.38 · 45 matches

Kryvbas 2020 U19 away — creates 1.38, concedes 2.00 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zorya Luhansk U19 attack 1.47 + Kryvbas 2020 U19 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.73

Kryvbas 2020 U19 attack 1.38 + Zorya Luhansk U19 defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Zorya Luhansk U19 scores more

46%

level

23%

Kryvbas 2020 U19 scores more

31%

Zorya Luhansk U19 at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Zorya Luhansk U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff