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Kryvbas 2020 U19 vs Zorya Luhansk U19 — U19 League 2023

Kryvbas 2020 U19
Kryvbas 2020 U19
FT
2 – 4
Zorya Luhansk U19
Zorya Luhansk U19
12/8/2023U19 LeagueU19 League · Round 17Stadion Sparta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Kryvbas 2020 U1943%
×Draw23%
Zorya Luhansk U1933%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kryvbas 2020 U19
1.71
Zorya Luhansk U19
1.47

Kryvbas 2020 U19 creates 16% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 45 away

creates per match

Kryvbas 2020 U19
1.69
Zorya Luhansk U19
1.38

allows per match

Kryvbas 2020 U19
1.56
Zorya Luhansk U19
1.73

finishing

Kryvbas 2020 U19+0.00on par
Zorya Luhansk U19+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kryvbas 2020 U19 ↓

Zorya Luhansk U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Kryvbas 2020 U19 or draw
67%
Kryvbas 2020 U19 or Zorya Luhansk U19
77%
Draw or Zorya Luhansk U19
57%

Winning margin

Kryvbas 2020 U19 wins by 2+
23%
Zorya Luhansk U19 wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Kryvbas 2020 U19 1+ goals
82%
Kryvbas 2020 U19 2+ goals
51%
Kryvbas 2020 U19 3+ goals
24%
Zorya Luhansk U19 1+ goals
77%
Zorya Luhansk U19 2+ goals
43%
Zorya Luhansk U19 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Kryvbas 2020 U19 (draw refunded)
57%
Zorya Luhansk U19 (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kryvbas 2020 U19 at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.56 · 45 matches

Zorya Luhansk U19 away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.73 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kryvbas 2020 U19 attack 1.69 + Zorya Luhansk U19 defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.71

Zorya Luhansk U19 attack 1.38 + Kryvbas 2020 U19 defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Kryvbas 2020 U19 scores more
43%
level
23%
Zorya Luhansk U19 scores more
33%

Kryvbas 2020 U19 at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Kryvbas 2020 U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

U19 League: Kryvbas 2020 U19 2–4 Zorya Luhansk U19

Zorya Luhansk U19 beat Kryvbas 2020 U19 4-2 in U19 League on December 8, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Sparta in Krivoj Rog.