Zorkiy 3–1 Dinamo St. Petersburg: Result & Stats

Zorkiy

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Dinamo St. Petersburg

9/18/2022

Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 11Stadion Zorkij

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Zorkiy41%

×Draw25%

Dinamo St. Petersburg34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ZorkiyExpected goals in this matchDinamo St. Petersburg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.32

Zorkiy

1.48

Dinamo St. Petersburg

1.32

Zorkiy creates 12% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 61 away

1.52

creates per match

1.49

1.16

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Zorkiy

1.52

Dinamo St. Petersburg

1.49

allows per match

Zorkiy

1.16

Dinamo St. Petersburg

1.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zorkiy+0.00on par

Dinamo St. Petersburg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zorkiy ↓

Dinamo St. Petersburg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Zorkiy or draw

66%

Zorkiy or Dinamo St. Petersburg

75%

Draw or Dinamo St. Petersburg

59%

Winning margin

Zorkiy wins by 2+

20%

Dinamo St. Petersburg wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Zorkiy 1+ goals

77%

Zorkiy 2+ goals

43%

Zorkiy 3+ goals

19%

Dinamo St. Petersburg 1+ goals

73%

Dinamo St. Petersburg 2+ goals

38%

Dinamo St. Petersburg 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Zorkiy (draw refunded)

55%

Dinamo St. Petersburg (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zorkiy at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.16 · 25 matches

Dinamo St. Petersburg away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.44 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zorkiy attack 1.52 + Dinamo St. Petersburg defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.48

Dinamo St. Petersburg attack 1.49 + Zorkiy defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Zorkiy scores more

41%

level

25%

Dinamo St. Petersburg scores more

34%

Zorkiy at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Zorkiy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff