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Dinamo St. Petersburg vs Zorkiy — Second League - Group 2 2020

Dinamo St. Petersburg
Dinamo St. Petersburg
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Zorkiy
Zorkiy
10/15/2023Second League - Group 2Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 13Stadion Nova Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Dinamo St. Petersburg40%
×Draw28%
Zorkiy32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dinamo St. Petersburg
1.25
Zorkiy
1.10

Dinamo St. Petersburg creates 14% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 24 away

creates per match

Dinamo St. Petersburg
1.36
Zorkiy
1.13

allows per match

Dinamo St. Petersburg
1.07
Zorkiy
1.13

finishing

Dinamo St. Petersburg+0.00on par
Zorkiy+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo St. Petersburg ↓

Zorkiy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Dinamo St. Petersburg or draw
68%
Dinamo St. Petersburg or Zorkiy
72%
Draw or Zorkiy
60%

Winning margin

Dinamo St. Petersburg wins by 2+
17%
Zorkiy wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Dinamo St. Petersburg 1+ goals
71%
Dinamo St. Petersburg 2+ goals
36%
Dinamo St. Petersburg 3+ goals
13%
Zorkiy 1+ goals
67%
Zorkiy 2+ goals
30%
Zorkiy 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Dinamo St. Petersburg (draw refunded)
55%
Zorkiy (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo St. Petersburg at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.07 · 61 matches

Zorkiy away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.13 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo St. Petersburg attack 1.36 + Zorkiy defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.25

Zorkiy attack 1.13 + Dinamo St. Petersburg defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Dinamo St. Petersburg scores more
40%
level
28%
Zorkiy scores more
32%

Dinamo St. Petersburg at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Dinamo St. Petersburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 2: Dinamo St. Petersburg 0–1 Zorkiy

Zorkiy beat Dinamo St. Petersburg 1-0 in Second League - Group 2 on October 15, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Nova Arena in St. Petersburg.