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Zoo Kericho vs Wazito FC — FKF Premier League 2018

Zoo Kericho
Zoo Kericho
CANC
12:00
Wazito FC
Wazito FC
6/20/2021FKF Premier LeagueFKF Premier League · Round 20Kericho Green Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Zoo Kericho44%
×Draw29%
Wazito FC27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zoo Kericho
1.25
Wazito FC
0.92

Zoo Kericho creates 36% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 77 away

creates per match

Zoo Kericho
1.06
Wazito FC
0.75

allows per match

Zoo Kericho
1.08
Wazito FC
1.45

finishing

Zoo Kericho+0.00on par
Wazito FC+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zoo Kericho ↓

Wazito FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Zoo Kericho or draw
73%
Zoo Kericho or Wazito FC
71%
Draw or Wazito FC
56%

Winning margin

Zoo Kericho wins by 2+
20%
Wazito FC wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Zoo Kericho 1+ goals
71%
Zoo Kericho 2+ goals
36%
Zoo Kericho 3+ goals
13%
Wazito FC 1+ goals
60%
Wazito FC 2+ goals
23%
Wazito FC 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Zoo Kericho (draw refunded)
62%
Wazito FC (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zoo Kericho at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.08 · 51 matches

Wazito FC away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.45 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zoo Kericho attack 1.06 + Wazito FC defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.25

Wazito FC attack 0.75 + Zoo Kericho defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Zoo Kericho scores more
44%
level
29%
Wazito FC scores more
27%

Zoo Kericho at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Zoo Kericho will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Zoo Kericho vs Wazito FC — Match Preview

Zoo Kericho face Wazito FC on June 20, 2021 in this FKF Premier League fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Zoo Kericho host Wazito FC at Kericho Green Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.