Wazito FC 1–0 Zoo Kericho: Result & Stats

Wazito FC

FT

1 – 0

Zoo Kericho

3/1/2021

FKF Premier League · Round 12Bukhungu Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Wazito FC46%

×Draw26%

Zoo Kericho28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Wazito FCExpected goals in this matchZoo Kericho

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.10

Wazito FC

1.48

Zoo Kericho

1.10

Wazito FC creates 35% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 52 away

1.01

creates per match

0.90

1.31

allows per match

1.94

creates per match

Wazito FC

1.01

Zoo Kericho

0.90

allows per match

Wazito FC

1.31

Zoo Kericho

1.94

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wazito FC+0.00on par

Zoo Kericho+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wazito FC ↓

Zoo Kericho →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Wazito FC or draw

72%

Wazito FC or Zoo Kericho

74%

Draw or Zoo Kericho

54%

Winning margin

Wazito FC wins by 2+

23%

Zoo Kericho wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Wazito FC 1+ goals

77%

Wazito FC 2+ goals

43%

Wazito FC 3+ goals

19%

Zoo Kericho 1+ goals

67%

Zoo Kericho 2+ goals

30%

Zoo Kericho 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Wazito FC (draw refunded)

62%

Zoo Kericho (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wazito FC at home — creates 1.01, concedes 1.31 · 80 matches

Zoo Kericho away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.94 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wazito FC attack 1.01 + Zoo Kericho defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.48

Zoo Kericho attack 0.90 + Wazito FC defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Wazito FC scores more

46%

level

26%

Zoo Kericho scores more

28%

Wazito FC at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Wazito FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff