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Zoo Kericho vs Thika United — FKF Premier League 2018

Zoo Kericho
Zoo Kericho
FT
2 – 1
Thika United
Thika United
2/25/2018FKF Premier LeagueFKF Premier League · Round 4Kericho Green Stadium (Kericho)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Zoo Kericho50%
×Draw26%
Thika United23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zoo Kericho
1.48
Thika United
0.92

Zoo Kericho creates 61% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 17 away

creates per match

Zoo Kericho
1.08
Thika United
0.76

allows per match

Zoo Kericho
1.08
Thika United
1.88

finishing

Zoo Kericho+0.00on par
Thika United+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zoo Kericho ↓

Thika United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Zoo Kericho or draw
77%
Zoo Kericho or Thika United
74%
Draw or Thika United
50%

Winning margin

Zoo Kericho wins by 2+
25%
Thika United wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Zoo Kericho 1+ goals
77%
Zoo Kericho 2+ goals
43%
Zoo Kericho 3+ goals
19%
Thika United 1+ goals
60%
Thika United 2+ goals
23%
Thika United 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Zoo Kericho (draw refunded)
68%
Thika United (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zoo Kericho at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.08 · 50 matches

Thika United away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.88 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zoo Kericho attack 1.08 + Thika United defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.48

Thika United attack 0.76 + Zoo Kericho defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Zoo Kericho scores more
50%
level
26%
Thika United scores more
23%

Zoo Kericho at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Zoo Kericho will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FKF Premier League: Zoo Kericho 2–1 Thika United

Zoo Kericho beat Thika United 2-1 in FKF Premier League on February 25, 2018.

The match was played at Kericho Green Stadium (Kericho).