Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Thika United vs Zoo Kericho — FKF Premier League 2018

Thika United
Thika United
FT
1 – 2
Zoo Kericho
Zoo Kericho
9/30/2018FKF Premier LeagueFKF Premier League · Round 33Thika Municipal Stadium (Thika)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Thika United40%
×Draw28%
Zoo Kericho32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Thika United
1.26
Zoo Kericho
1.11

Thika United creates 14% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 54 away

creates per match

Thika United
0.61
Zoo Kericho
0.89

allows per match

Thika United
1.33
Zoo Kericho
1.91

finishing

Thika United+0.00on par
Zoo Kericho+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Thika United ↓

Zoo Kericho →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Thika United or draw
68%
Thika United or Zoo Kericho
72%
Draw or Zoo Kericho
60%

Winning margin

Thika United wins by 2+
18%
Zoo Kericho wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Thika United 1+ goals
72%
Thika United 2+ goals
36%
Thika United 3+ goals
13%
Zoo Kericho 1+ goals
67%
Zoo Kericho 2+ goals
30%
Zoo Kericho 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Thika United (draw refunded)
55%
Zoo Kericho (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Thika United at home — creates 0.61, concedes 1.33 · 18 matches

Zoo Kericho away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.91 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Thika United attack 0.61 + Zoo Kericho defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.26

Zoo Kericho attack 0.89 + Thika United defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Thika United scores more
40%
level
28%
Zoo Kericho scores more
32%

Thika United at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Thika United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FKF Premier League: Thika United 1–2 Zoo Kericho

Zoo Kericho beat Thika United 2-1 in FKF Premier League on September 30, 2018.

The match was played at Thika Municipal Stadium (Thika).