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Zoo Kericho vs Sofapaka — FKF Premier League 2018

Zoo Kericho
Zoo Kericho
FT
0 – 0
Sofapaka
Sofapaka
3/6/2020FKF Premier LeagueFKF Premier League · Round 24Kericho Green Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Zoo Kericho38%
×Draw30%
Sofapaka33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zoo Kericho
1.11
Sofapaka
1.01

Zoo Kericho creates 10% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 147 away

creates per match

Zoo Kericho
1.08
Sofapaka
0.94

allows per match

Zoo Kericho
1.08
Sofapaka
1.14

finishing

Zoo Kericho+0.00on par
Sofapaka+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zoo Kericho ↓

Sofapaka →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Zoo Kericho or draw
67%
Zoo Kericho or Sofapaka
70%
Draw or Sofapaka
62%

Winning margin

Zoo Kericho wins by 2+
15%
Sofapaka wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Zoo Kericho 1+ goals
67%
Zoo Kericho 2+ goals
30%
Zoo Kericho 3+ goals
10%
Sofapaka 1+ goals
64%
Sofapaka 2+ goals
27%
Sofapaka 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Zoo Kericho (draw refunded)
54%
Sofapaka (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zoo Kericho at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.08 · 53 matches

Sofapaka away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.14 · 147 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zoo Kericho attack 1.08 + Sofapaka defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.11

Sofapaka attack 0.94 + Zoo Kericho defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Zoo Kericho scores more
38%
level
30%
Sofapaka scores more
33%

Zoo Kericho at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Zoo Kericho will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Zoo Kericho vs Sofapaka

Zoo Kericho and Sofapaka drew 0-0 in FKF Premier League on March 6, 2020.

The match was played at Kericho Green Stadium in Kericho.