Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Sofapaka vs Zoo Kericho — FKF Premier League 2018

Sofapaka
Sofapaka
FT
2 – 1
Zoo Kericho
Zoo Kericho
11/24/2019FKF Premier LeagueFKF Premier League · Round 11Narok County Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Sofapaka51%
×Draw25%
Zoo Kericho24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sofapaka
1.59
Zoo Kericho
1.00

Sofapaka creates 59% more chances

Season form · 148 home / 52 away

creates per match

Sofapaka
1.25
Zoo Kericho
0.90

allows per match

Sofapaka
1.10
Zoo Kericho
1.94

finishing

Sofapaka+0.00on par
Zoo Kericho+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sofapaka ↓

Zoo Kericho →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Sofapaka or draw
76%
Sofapaka or Zoo Kericho
75%
Draw or Zoo Kericho
49%

Winning margin

Sofapaka wins by 2+
27%
Zoo Kericho wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Sofapaka 1+ goals
80%
Sofapaka 2+ goals
47%
Sofapaka 3+ goals
21%
Zoo Kericho 1+ goals
63%
Zoo Kericho 2+ goals
26%
Zoo Kericho 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Sofapaka (draw refunded)
68%
Zoo Kericho (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sofapaka at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.10 · 148 matches

Zoo Kericho away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.94 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sofapaka attack 1.25 + Zoo Kericho defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.59

Zoo Kericho attack 0.90 + Sofapaka defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Sofapaka scores more
51%
level
25%
Zoo Kericho scores more
24%

Sofapaka at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Sofapaka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FKF Premier League: Sofapaka 2–1 Zoo Kericho

Sofapaka beat Zoo Kericho 2-1 in FKF Premier League on November 24, 2019.

The match was played at Narok County Stadium in Narok.