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Zoo Kericho vs Silibwet — Super League 2018

Zoo Kericho
Zoo Kericho
FT
3 – 1
Silibwet
Silibwet
1/22/2022Super LeagueSuper League · Round 3Kericho Green Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Zoo Kericho61%
×Draw22%
Silibwet17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zoo Kericho
1.84
Silibwet
0.84

Zoo Kericho creates 119% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 54 away

creates per match

Zoo Kericho
1.31
Silibwet
0.63

allows per match

Zoo Kericho
1.06
Silibwet
2.37

finishing

Zoo Kericho+0.00on par
Silibwet+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zoo Kericho ↓

Silibwet →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Zoo Kericho or draw
83%
Zoo Kericho or Silibwet
78%
Draw or Silibwet
39%

Winning margin

Zoo Kericho wins by 2+
36%
Silibwet wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Zoo Kericho 1+ goals
84%
Zoo Kericho 2+ goals
55%
Zoo Kericho 3+ goals
28%
Silibwet 1+ goals
57%
Silibwet 2+ goals
21%
Silibwet 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Zoo Kericho (draw refunded)
78%
Silibwet (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zoo Kericho at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.06 · 16 matches

Silibwet away — creates 0.63, concedes 2.37 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zoo Kericho attack 1.31 + Silibwet defence 2.37 → ÷2 → 1.84

Silibwet attack 0.63 + Zoo Kericho defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Zoo Kericho scores more
61%
level
22%
Silibwet scores more
17%

Zoo Kericho at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Zoo Kericho will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Zoo Kericho vs Silibwet

Zoo Kericho beat Silibwet 3-1 in Super League on January 22, 2022.

The match was played at Kericho Green Stadium in Kericho.