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Silibwet vs Zoo Kericho — Super League 2018

Silibwet
Silibwet
CANC
00:00
Zoo Kericho
Zoo Kericho
7/13/2022Super LeagueSuper League · Round 36Bomet Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Silibwet34%
×Draw25%
Zoo Kericho42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Silibwet
1.37
Zoo Kericho
1.56

Zoo Kericho creates 14% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 14 away

creates per match

Silibwet
1.10
Zoo Kericho
1.64

allows per match

Silibwet
1.48
Zoo Kericho
1.64

finishing

Silibwet+0.00on par
Zoo Kericho+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Silibwet ↓

Zoo Kericho →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Silibwet or draw
58%
Silibwet or Zoo Kericho
75%
Draw or Zoo Kericho
66%

Winning margin

Silibwet wins by 2+
15%
Zoo Kericho wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Silibwet 1+ goals
75%
Silibwet 2+ goals
40%
Silibwet 3+ goals
16%
Zoo Kericho 1+ goals
79%
Zoo Kericho 2+ goals
46%
Zoo Kericho 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Silibwet (draw refunded)
44%
Zoo Kericho (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Silibwet at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.48 · 52 matches

Zoo Kericho away — creates 1.64, concedes 1.64 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Silibwet attack 1.10 + Zoo Kericho defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.37

Zoo Kericho attack 1.64 + Silibwet defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Silibwet scores more
34%
level
25%
Zoo Kericho scores more
42%

Zoo Kericho at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Zoo Kericho will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Silibwet vs Zoo Kericho — Match Preview

Silibwet face Zoo Kericho on July 13, 2022 in this Super League fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Silibwet host Zoo Kericho at Bomet Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.