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Zoo Kericho vs Posta Rangers FC — FKF Premier League 2018

Zoo Kericho
Zoo Kericho
FT
1 – 1
Posta Rangers FC
Posta Rangers FC
1/13/2021FKF Premier LeagueFKF Premier League · Round 6Afraha Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Zoo Kericho36%
×Draw29%
Posta Rangers FC34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zoo Kericho
1.10
Posta Rangers FC
1.06

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 51 home / 149 away

creates per match

Zoo Kericho
1.06
Posta Rangers FC
1.03

allows per match

Zoo Kericho
1.08
Posta Rangers FC
1.14

finishing

Zoo Kericho+0.00on par
Posta Rangers FC+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zoo Kericho ↓

Posta Rangers FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Zoo Kericho or draw
66%
Zoo Kericho or Posta Rangers FC
71%
Draw or Posta Rangers FC
64%

Winning margin

Zoo Kericho wins by 2+
15%
Posta Rangers FC wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Zoo Kericho 1+ goals
67%
Zoo Kericho 2+ goals
30%
Zoo Kericho 3+ goals
10%
Posta Rangers FC 1+ goals
65%
Posta Rangers FC 2+ goals
29%
Posta Rangers FC 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Zoo Kericho (draw refunded)
51%
Posta Rangers FC (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zoo Kericho at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.08 · 51 matches

Posta Rangers FC away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.14 · 149 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zoo Kericho attack 1.06 + Posta Rangers FC defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.10

Posta Rangers FC attack 1.03 + Zoo Kericho defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Zoo Kericho scores more
36%
level
29%
Posta Rangers FC scores more
34%

Zoo Kericho at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Zoo Kericho will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FKF Premier League: Zoo Kericho 1–1 Posta Rangers FC

Zoo Kericho and Posta Rangers FC drew 1-1 in FKF Premier League on January 13, 2021.

The match was played at Afraha Stadium in Nakuru.