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Posta Rangers FC vs Zoo Kericho — FKF Premier League 2018

Posta Rangers FC
Posta Rangers FC
CANC
11:00
Zoo Kericho
Zoo Kericho
5/24/2020FKF Premier LeagueFKF Premier League · Round 34Nyayo National Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Posta Rangers FC47%
×Draw27%
Zoo Kericho27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Posta Rangers FC
1.44
Zoo Kericho
1.02

Posta Rangers FC creates 41% more chances

Season form · 146 home / 52 away

creates per match

Posta Rangers FC
0.95
Zoo Kericho
0.90

allows per match

Posta Rangers FC
1.14
Zoo Kericho
1.94

finishing

Posta Rangers FC+0.00on par
Zoo Kericho+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Posta Rangers FC ↓

Zoo Kericho →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Posta Rangers FC or draw
73%
Posta Rangers FC or Zoo Kericho
73%
Draw or Zoo Kericho
53%

Winning margin

Posta Rangers FC wins by 2+
23%
Zoo Kericho wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Posta Rangers FC 1+ goals
76%
Posta Rangers FC 2+ goals
42%
Posta Rangers FC 3+ goals
18%
Zoo Kericho 1+ goals
64%
Zoo Kericho 2+ goals
27%
Zoo Kericho 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Posta Rangers FC (draw refunded)
64%
Zoo Kericho (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Posta Rangers FC at home — creates 0.95, concedes 1.14 · 146 matches

Zoo Kericho away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.94 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Posta Rangers FC attack 0.95 + Zoo Kericho defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.44

Zoo Kericho attack 0.90 + Posta Rangers FC defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Posta Rangers FC scores more
47%
level
27%
Zoo Kericho scores more
27%

Posta Rangers FC at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Posta Rangers FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Posta Rangers FC face Zoo Kericho (FKF Premier League)

FKF Premier League returns with Posta Rangers FC hosting Zoo Kericho. Match starts May 24, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Posta Rangers FC host Zoo Kericho at Nyayo National Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.