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Zoo Kericho vs Nzoia Sugar — FKF Premier League 2018

Zoo Kericho
Zoo Kericho
CANC
12:00
Nzoia Sugar
Nzoia Sugar
5/28/2021FKF Premier LeagueFKF Premier League · Round 18Kericho Green Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Zoo Kericho40%
×Draw29%
Nzoia Sugar32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zoo Kericho
1.20
Nzoia Sugar
1.04

Zoo Kericho creates 15% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 112 away

creates per match

Zoo Kericho
1.08
Nzoia Sugar
1.01

allows per match

Zoo Kericho
1.08
Nzoia Sugar
1.32

finishing

Zoo Kericho+0.00on par
Nzoia Sugar+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zoo Kericho ↓

Nzoia Sugar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Zoo Kericho or draw
68%
Zoo Kericho or Nzoia Sugar
71%
Draw or Nzoia Sugar
60%

Winning margin

Zoo Kericho wins by 2+
17%
Nzoia Sugar wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Zoo Kericho 1+ goals
70%
Zoo Kericho 2+ goals
34%
Zoo Kericho 3+ goals
12%
Nzoia Sugar 1+ goals
65%
Nzoia Sugar 2+ goals
28%
Nzoia Sugar 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Zoo Kericho (draw refunded)
56%
Nzoia Sugar (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zoo Kericho at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.08 · 53 matches

Nzoia Sugar away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.32 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zoo Kericho attack 1.08 + Nzoia Sugar defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.20

Nzoia Sugar attack 1.01 + Zoo Kericho defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Zoo Kericho scores more
40%
level
29%
Nzoia Sugar scores more
32%

Zoo Kericho at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Zoo Kericho will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Zoo Kericho face Nzoia Sugar (FKF Premier League)

FKF Premier League returns with Zoo Kericho hosting Nzoia Sugar. Match starts May 28, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Zoo Kericho host Nzoia Sugar at Kericho Green Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.