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Nzoia Sugar vs Zoo Kericho — FKF Premier League 2018

Nzoia Sugar
Nzoia Sugar
FT
0 – 0
Zoo Kericho
Zoo Kericho
1/25/2020FKF Premier LeagueFKF Premier League · Round 19Sudi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Nzoia Sugar47%
×Draw26%
Zoo Kericho26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nzoia Sugar
1.45
Zoo Kericho
1.01

Nzoia Sugar creates 44% more chances

Season form · 113 home / 52 away

creates per match

Nzoia Sugar
0.96
Zoo Kericho
0.90

allows per match

Nzoia Sugar
1.12
Zoo Kericho
1.94

finishing

Nzoia Sugar+0.00on par
Zoo Kericho+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nzoia Sugar ↓

Zoo Kericho →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Nzoia Sugar or draw
74%
Nzoia Sugar or Zoo Kericho
74%
Draw or Zoo Kericho
53%

Winning margin

Nzoia Sugar wins by 2+
23%
Zoo Kericho wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Nzoia Sugar 1+ goals
77%
Nzoia Sugar 2+ goals
42%
Nzoia Sugar 3+ goals
18%
Zoo Kericho 1+ goals
64%
Zoo Kericho 2+ goals
27%
Zoo Kericho 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Nzoia Sugar (draw refunded)
64%
Zoo Kericho (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nzoia Sugar at home — creates 0.96, concedes 1.12 · 113 matches

Zoo Kericho away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.94 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nzoia Sugar attack 0.96 + Zoo Kericho defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.45

Zoo Kericho attack 0.90 + Nzoia Sugar defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Nzoia Sugar scores more
47%
level
26%
Zoo Kericho scores more
26%

Nzoia Sugar at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Nzoia Sugar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FKF Premier League: Nzoia Sugar 0–0 Zoo Kericho

Nzoia Sugar and Zoo Kericho drew 0-0 in FKF Premier League on January 25, 2020.

The match was played at Sudi Stadium in Bungoma.