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Zoo Kericho vs Nairobi City Stars — FKF Premier League 2018

Zoo Kericho
Zoo Kericho
CANC
12:00
Nairobi City Stars
Nairobi City Stars
7/17/2021FKF Premier LeagueFKF Premier League · Round 25Kericho Green Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Zoo Kericho37%
×Draw29%
Nairobi City Stars33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zoo Kericho
1.13
Nairobi City Stars
1.05

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 51 home / 84 away

creates per match

Zoo Kericho
1.06
Nairobi City Stars
1.02

allows per match

Zoo Kericho
1.08
Nairobi City Stars
1.20

finishing

Zoo Kericho+0.00on par
Nairobi City Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zoo Kericho ↓

Nairobi City Stars →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Zoo Kericho or draw
67%
Zoo Kericho or Nairobi City Stars
71%
Draw or Nairobi City Stars
63%

Winning margin

Zoo Kericho wins by 2+
15%
Nairobi City Stars wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Zoo Kericho 1+ goals
68%
Zoo Kericho 2+ goals
31%
Zoo Kericho 3+ goals
11%
Nairobi City Stars 1+ goals
65%
Nairobi City Stars 2+ goals
28%
Nairobi City Stars 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Zoo Kericho (draw refunded)
53%
Nairobi City Stars (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zoo Kericho at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.08 · 51 matches

Nairobi City Stars away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.20 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zoo Kericho attack 1.06 + Nairobi City Stars defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.13

Nairobi City Stars attack 1.02 + Zoo Kericho defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Zoo Kericho scores more
37%
level
29%
Nairobi City Stars scores more
33%

Zoo Kericho at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Zoo Kericho will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Zoo Kericho vs Nairobi City Stars — Match Preview

Zoo Kericho face Nairobi City Stars on July 17, 2021 in this FKF Premier League fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Zoo Kericho host Nairobi City Stars at Kericho Green Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.