Nairobi City Stars 2–1 Zoo Kericho: Result & Stats

Nairobi City Stars

FT

2 – 1

Zoo Kericho

2/20/2021

FKF Premier League · Round 11Moi International Sports Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Nairobi City Stars50%

×Draw25%

Zoo Kericho24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nairobi City StarsExpected goals in this matchZoo Kericho

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.00

Nairobi City Stars

1.56

Zoo Kericho

1.00

Nairobi City Stars creates 56% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 52 away

1.18

creates per match

0.90

1.09

allows per match

1.94

creates per match

Nairobi City Stars

1.18

Zoo Kericho

0.90

allows per match

Nairobi City Stars

1.09

Zoo Kericho

1.94

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nairobi City Stars+0.00on par

Zoo Kericho+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nairobi City Stars ↓

Zoo Kericho →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Nairobi City Stars or draw

76%

Nairobi City Stars or Zoo Kericho

75%

Draw or Zoo Kericho

50%

Winning margin

Nairobi City Stars wins by 2+

26%

Zoo Kericho wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Nairobi City Stars 1+ goals

79%

Nairobi City Stars 2+ goals

46%

Nairobi City Stars 3+ goals

21%

Zoo Kericho 1+ goals

63%

Zoo Kericho 2+ goals

26%

Zoo Kericho 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Nairobi City Stars (draw refunded)

67%

Zoo Kericho (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nairobi City Stars at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.09 · 85 matches

Zoo Kericho away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.94 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nairobi City Stars attack 1.18 + Zoo Kericho defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.56

Zoo Kericho attack 0.90 + Nairobi City Stars defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Nairobi City Stars scores more

50%

level

25%

Zoo Kericho scores more

24%

Nairobi City Stars at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Nairobi City Stars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff