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Zoo Kericho vs Mombasa Elite — Super League 2018

Zoo Kericho
Zoo Kericho
FT
1 – 0
Mombasa Elite
Mombasa Elite
2/5/2022Super LeagueSuper League · Round 5Kericho Green Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Zoo Kericho50%
×Draw26%
Mombasa Elite24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zoo Kericho
1.47
Mombasa Elite
0.92

Zoo Kericho creates 60% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 91 away

creates per match

Zoo Kericho
1.31
Mombasa Elite
0.78

allows per match

Zoo Kericho
1.06
Mombasa Elite
1.62

finishing

Zoo Kericho+0.00on par
Mombasa Elite+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zoo Kericho ↓

Mombasa Elite →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Zoo Kericho or draw
76%
Zoo Kericho or Mombasa Elite
74%
Draw or Mombasa Elite
50%

Winning margin

Zoo Kericho wins by 2+
25%
Mombasa Elite wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Zoo Kericho 1+ goals
77%
Zoo Kericho 2+ goals
43%
Zoo Kericho 3+ goals
18%
Mombasa Elite 1+ goals
60%
Mombasa Elite 2+ goals
23%
Mombasa Elite 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Zoo Kericho (draw refunded)
68%
Mombasa Elite (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zoo Kericho at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.06 · 16 matches

Mombasa Elite away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.62 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zoo Kericho attack 1.31 + Mombasa Elite defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.47

Mombasa Elite attack 0.78 + Zoo Kericho defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Zoo Kericho scores more
50%
level
26%
Mombasa Elite scores more
24%

Zoo Kericho at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Zoo Kericho will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Zoo Kericho 1–0 Mombasa Elite

Zoo Kericho beat Mombasa Elite 1-0 in Super League on February 5, 2022.

The match was played at Kericho Green Stadium in Kericho.