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Mombasa Elite vs Zoo Kericho — Super League 2018

Mombasa Elite
Mombasa Elite
CANC
11:00
Zoo Kericho
Zoo Kericho
7/24/2022Super LeagueSuper League · Round 38Mbaraki Sports Club

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Mombasa Elite42%
×Draw25%
Zoo Kericho33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mombasa Elite
1.50
Zoo Kericho
1.29

Mombasa Elite creates 16% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 14 away

creates per match

Mombasa Elite
1.36
Zoo Kericho
1.64

allows per match

Mombasa Elite
0.94
Zoo Kericho
1.64

finishing

Mombasa Elite+0.00on par
Zoo Kericho+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mombasa Elite ↓

Zoo Kericho →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Mombasa Elite or draw
67%
Mombasa Elite or Zoo Kericho
75%
Draw or Zoo Kericho
58%

Winning margin

Mombasa Elite wins by 2+
21%
Zoo Kericho wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Mombasa Elite 1+ goals
78%
Mombasa Elite 2+ goals
44%
Mombasa Elite 3+ goals
19%
Zoo Kericho 1+ goals
72%
Zoo Kericho 2+ goals
37%
Zoo Kericho 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Mombasa Elite (draw refunded)
56%
Zoo Kericho (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mombasa Elite at home — creates 1.36, concedes 0.94 · 90 matches

Zoo Kericho away — creates 1.64, concedes 1.64 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mombasa Elite attack 1.36 + Zoo Kericho defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.50

Zoo Kericho attack 1.64 + Mombasa Elite defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Mombasa Elite scores more
42%
level
25%
Zoo Kericho scores more
33%

Mombasa Elite at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Mombasa Elite will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Mombasa Elite face Zoo Kericho (Super League)

Super League returns with Mombasa Elite hosting Zoo Kericho. Match starts July 24, 2022. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Mombasa Elite host Zoo Kericho at Mbaraki Sports Club.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.