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Zoo Kericho vs Homeboyz — FKF Premier League 2018

Zoo Kericho
Zoo Kericho
FT
3 – 2
Homeboyz
Homeboyz
5/26/2019FKF Premier LeagueFKF Premier League · Round 33Kericho Green Stadium (Kericho)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Zoo Kericho35%
×Draw29%
Homeboyz37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zoo Kericho
1.10
Homeboyz
1.14

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 51 home / 146 away

creates per match

Zoo Kericho
1.06
Homeboyz
1.19

allows per match

Zoo Kericho
1.08
Homeboyz
1.15

finishing

Zoo Kericho+0.00on par
Homeboyz+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zoo Kericho ↓

Homeboyz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Zoo Kericho or draw
63%
Zoo Kericho or Homeboyz
71%
Draw or Homeboyz
65%

Winning margin

Zoo Kericho wins by 2+
14%
Homeboyz wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Zoo Kericho 1+ goals
67%
Zoo Kericho 2+ goals
30%
Zoo Kericho 3+ goals
10%
Homeboyz 1+ goals
68%
Homeboyz 2+ goals
32%
Homeboyz 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Zoo Kericho (draw refunded)
49%
Homeboyz (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zoo Kericho at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.08 · 51 matches

Homeboyz away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.15 · 146 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zoo Kericho attack 1.06 + Homeboyz defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.10

Homeboyz attack 1.19 + Zoo Kericho defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Zoo Kericho scores more
35%
level
29%
Homeboyz scores more
37%

Homeboyz at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Homeboyz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FKF Premier League: Zoo Kericho 3–2 Homeboyz

Zoo Kericho beat Homeboyz 3-2 in FKF Premier League on May 26, 2019.

The match was played at Kericho Green Stadium (Kericho).