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Homeboyz vs Zoo Kericho — FKF Premier League 2018

Homeboyz
Homeboyz
CANC
00:00
Zoo Kericho
Zoo Kericho
4/26/2020FKF Premier LeagueFKF Premier League · Round 30Mumias Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Homeboyz56%
×Draw24%
Zoo Kericho19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Homeboyz
1.67
Zoo Kericho
0.87

Homeboyz creates 92% more chances

Season form · 146 home / 52 away

creates per match

Homeboyz
1.41
Zoo Kericho
0.90

allows per match

Homeboyz
0.84
Zoo Kericho
1.94

finishing

Homeboyz+0.00on par
Zoo Kericho+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Homeboyz ↓

Zoo Kericho →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Homeboyz or draw
81%
Homeboyz or Zoo Kericho
76%
Draw or Zoo Kericho
44%

Winning margin

Homeboyz wins by 2+
31%
Zoo Kericho wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Homeboyz 1+ goals
81%
Homeboyz 2+ goals
50%
Homeboyz 3+ goals
23%
Zoo Kericho 1+ goals
58%
Zoo Kericho 2+ goals
22%
Zoo Kericho 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Homeboyz (draw refunded)
74%
Zoo Kericho (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Homeboyz at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.84 · 146 matches

Zoo Kericho away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.94 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Homeboyz attack 1.41 + Zoo Kericho defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.67

Zoo Kericho attack 0.90 + Homeboyz defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Homeboyz scores more
56%
level
24%
Zoo Kericho scores more
19%

Homeboyz at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Homeboyz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Homeboyz vs Zoo Kericho — Match Preview

Homeboyz face Zoo Kericho on April 26, 2020 in this FKF Premier League fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Homeboyz host Zoo Kericho at Mumias Sports Complex.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.