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Zoo Kericho vs GOR Mahia — FKF Premier League 2018

Zoo Kericho
Zoo Kericho
CANC
13:00
GOR Mahia
GOR Mahia
4/11/2021FKF Premier LeagueFKF Premier League · Round 15Kericho Green Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Zoo Kericho27%
×Draw28%
GOR Mahia45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zoo Kericho
0.93
GOR Mahia
1.29

GOR Mahia creates 39% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 144 away

creates per match

Zoo Kericho
1.06
GOR Mahia
1.49

allows per match

Zoo Kericho
1.08
GOR Mahia
0.80

finishing

Zoo Kericho+0.00on par
GOR Mahia+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zoo Kericho ↓

GOR Mahia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–114%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Zoo Kericho or draw
55%
Zoo Kericho or GOR Mahia
72%
Draw or GOR Mahia
73%

Winning margin

Zoo Kericho wins by 2+
9%
GOR Mahia wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Zoo Kericho 1+ goals
61%
Zoo Kericho 2+ goals
24%
Zoo Kericho 3+ goals
7%
GOR Mahia 1+ goals
72%
GOR Mahia 2+ goals
37%
GOR Mahia 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Zoo Kericho (draw refunded)
37%
GOR Mahia (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zoo Kericho at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.08 · 51 matches

GOR Mahia away — creates 1.49, concedes 0.80 · 144 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zoo Kericho attack 1.06 + GOR Mahia defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.93

GOR Mahia attack 1.49 + Zoo Kericho defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Zoo Kericho scores more
27%
level
28%
GOR Mahia scores more
45%

GOR Mahia at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "GOR Mahia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Zoo Kericho vs GOR Mahia — Match Preview

Zoo Kericho face GOR Mahia on April 11, 2021 in this FKF Premier League fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Zoo Kericho host GOR Mahia at Kericho Green Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.