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GOR Mahia vs Zoo Kericho — FKF Premier League 2018

GOR Mahia
GOR Mahia
FT
1 – 0
Zoo Kericho
Zoo Kericho
10/6/2019FKF Premier LeagueFKF Premier League · Round 5Kenyatta Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

GOR Mahia60%
×Draw23%
Zoo Kericho17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

GOR Mahia
1.76
Zoo Kericho
0.80

GOR Mahia creates 120% more chances

Season form · 147 home / 52 away

creates per match

GOR Mahia
1.58
Zoo Kericho
0.90

allows per match

GOR Mahia
0.70
Zoo Kericho
1.94

finishing

GOR Mahia+0.00on par
Zoo Kericho+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

GOR Mahia ↓

Zoo Kericho →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

GOR Mahia or draw
83%
GOR Mahia or Zoo Kericho
77%
Draw or Zoo Kericho
40%

Winning margin

GOR Mahia wins by 2+
34%
Zoo Kericho wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

GOR Mahia 1+ goals
83%
GOR Mahia 2+ goals
52%
GOR Mahia 3+ goals
26%
Zoo Kericho 1+ goals
55%
Zoo Kericho 2+ goals
19%
Zoo Kericho 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

GOR Mahia (draw refunded)
78%
Zoo Kericho (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

GOR Mahia at home — creates 1.58, concedes 0.70 · 147 matches

Zoo Kericho away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.94 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

GOR Mahia attack 1.58 + Zoo Kericho defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.76

Zoo Kericho attack 0.90 + GOR Mahia defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

GOR Mahia scores more
60%
level
23%
Zoo Kericho scores more
17%

GOR Mahia at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "GOR Mahia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FKF Premier League: GOR Mahia 1–0 Zoo Kericho

GOR Mahia beat Zoo Kericho 1-0 in FKF Premier League on October 6, 2019.

The match was played at Kenyatta Stadium in Machakos.